Published in Three Parts by Taaza Kahabar News
China-Philippines maritime conflict: a threat to Indo-Pacific security – 1
Published Taaza Khabar News 9 Apr 2024
China-Philippines maritime conflict: a threat to Indo-Pacific security – 2
Published Taaza Khabar News 11 Apr 2024
China-Philippines maritime conflict: a threat to Indo-Pacific security – 3
Published Taaza Khabar News 13 Apr 2024
[Excerpts from an online talk delivered on 23 Mar 2024 by Radm Dr S Kulshrestha at the Council for Strategic Affairs, USA.]
The Philippines holds a special position in Southeast Asia. Its unique location between the Pacific Ocean and South China Sea provides an unmatched advantage in terms of geography. This puts the Philippines in the middle of major sea routes used by many countries for trade and navigation. As a result, the Philippines has become a crucial player in the dynamic Indo-Pacific region. Its position not only shapes its own national interests but also impacts broader regional security dynamics.
The Philippines’ role as a central player in the Indo-Pacific region is not just a product of its geography but is deeply rooted in its history. The archipelago has long been a prize for empires, because of its strategic maritime location and rich natural resources.
The Philippines’ experience in World War II, particularly with Japanese occupation and the consequential battles alongside Allied forces, underscored its geostrategic value. Post-war independence laid the groundwork for the country’s pivotal role as a foundation of democracy in Southeast Asia during the Cold War.
Maritime History of Philippines
The maritime history of the Philippines is not just a tale of seafaring and trade but also a prelude to its pivotal role in global warfare. In the 15th century, the archipelago underwent significant expansion and state formation, driven by the demands and opportunities for maritime exploration. Navigators set sails across vast oceans, charting new routes and forging connections that would mark the Philippines as a nexus of cultural and economic exchange. The growth of powerful coastal polities during this period is remarkable. Rising from a scattered collection of barangays (tribal units), these states harnessed the wealth of their marine surroundings to build societies with intricate social structures and governance systems. Trade flourished as the Philippines developed extensive commerce with neighbouring Asian giants. Links with China brought silk, porcelain, and tea; from India came spices, textiles, and precious stones, while contact with Arab traders introduced Islamic influence.
In November 1564, Spain, under King Philip II, conquered and colonised the Philippines. The merging of the Spanish and Portuguese crowns under the Iberian Union of 1580-1640 helped make permanent, the mutual recognition of the Spanish claim to the Philippines as well as Portugal’s claim to the Spice Islands (Moluccas). From 1565 to 1821, the Philippines was governed as part of the Mexico-based Viceroyalty of New Spain, which was later administered from Madrid following the Mexican War of Independence.
There were three naval actions between Dutch corsairs and Spanish forces in 1610, 1617, and 1624, known as the First, Second and Third Battles of Playa Honda, respectively. The second battle is the most famous and celebrated of the three, with even forces (10 ships vs. ten ships), resulting in the Dutch losing their flagships and retreating. Only the third battle of 1624 resulted in Dutch naval victory.
In 1646, a series of five naval actions known as the Battles of La Naval de Manila were fought between the forces of Spain and the Dutch Republic as part of the Eighty Years’ War. Although the Spanish forces consisted of just two Manila galleons and a galley with crews composed of Filipino volunteers, against three separate Dutch squadrons, totalling eighteen ships, the Dutch squadrons were severely defeated by the Spanish-Filipino forces, forcing the Dutch to abandon their plans for an invasion of the Philippines. British forces occupied Manila from 1762 to 1764; however, they were unable to extend their conquest outside Manila, as the Filipinos stayed loyal to the remaining Spanish community outside Manila. The Spanish American War began on 25 April 1898. On 1 May 1898 in the Battle of Manila Bay, the Asiatic Squadron of the U.S. The navy, led by Commodore George Dewey aboard the USS Olympia, decisively defeated the Spanish naval forces in the Philippines. With the loss of naval forces and control of Manila Bay, Spain lost the ability to defend Manila and, therefore, the Philippines. The American occupation, however, was not accepted, and many rebellious skirmishes took place until 1913, after which Americans ruled undisputedly until Japan occupied the Philippines from 1942 to 1945.
The transformation of the Philippines from a bustling trade hub to a prime target during World War 2 demonstrates a pivotal moment in history. Japanese military strategists recognised the archipelago’s strategic importance.
On 8 December 1941 surprisingly coinciding with the attack on Pearl Harbor, Japanese forces commenced their assault on the Philippines. Luzon, the largest island in Manila, became an early focal point for invading forces. Following the surrender of Filipino and American troops on 9 April 1942 prisoners of war endured a treacherous 65-mile march to prison camps. This event has been etched into history due to its extreme cruelty and loss of life.
The geography of the Philippines made it extremely important for major naval powers, especially the U.S. Navy during World War 2. Its location was like a bridge over the vast Pacific Ocean, providing a starting point for military operations and defence against further Japanese expansion.
– Being close to the Pacific Ocean, the Philippines provided access to important sea routes and potential targets for air attacks on Japanese-held territories.
– The islands had the capacity to have large naval bases and airfields, which were necessary for launching counterattacks in the area.
– Manila Bay was especially notable as a natural harbour that could hold large fleets, making it an ideal place for naval operations.
The road to freedom for the Philippines was difficult. This required bravery and selflessness from many individuals. In particular, the USAFFE (United States Army Forces in the Far East) and Filipino veterans played a crucial role in the fight for liberation from Japanese rule. The USAFFE was composed of both Filipino and American forces who joined hands to take back the Philippines. This unity showed their unwavering resolve against the Japanese, even in the face of difficult circumstances. They fought with incredible bravery and skills, proving themselves to be formidable opponents.
The Liberation of the Philippines was not an immediate event, but a series of major offensives that spanned a year. Starting with General Douglas MacArthur’s famous landing at Leyte in Oct 1944, with the Battle of Leyte Gulf, the Allies launched “Operation Musketeer”, a multipronged assault designed to reclaim the Philippines. The courage and resilience displayed by Filipino soldiers were pivotal in this phase.
This was followed by the Battle of Luzon in January 1945 and the recapture of Manila in March 1945. The Battle of Manila stands out as particularly significant. This intense clash happened within the city itself and is remembered as one of the largest urban battles of World War II. Japanese soldiers fought fiercely, causing widespread destruction and loss of civilian lives. However, amidst this devastation, the resilience of the Filipino people shone through. Despite facing unimaginable hardships, Filipino soldiers, alongside their American allies, managed to free their homeland from Japanese control. This arduous journey towards liberation culminated in July 1945, when Japanese forces surrendered at Baguio City. The recognition of these brave Filipino veterans came much later. In 2016, over seven decades after World War II ended, they were awarded one of America’s highest civilian honours, the Congressional Gold Medal.
These historical experiences have profoundly shaped Filipino identity, infusing it with a spirit of courage and persistence. Liberation from wartime atrocities marked not just a return to sovereignty but also set the nation on a path towards self-determination.
Philippine foreign policy remains intricately woven with its historical experiences, informing its position amidst contemporary regional power dynamics. The geopolitical environment of the Philippines is fraught with challenges stemming from the regional power dynamics. At the heart of these challenges lies China’s assertiveness in the South China Sea, a vast expanse critical for international trade and rich in resources. The Chinese militarisation of artificial islands and maritime claims conflict with those of the Philippines, affecting not only sovereignty issues but also fishing rights and energy exploration. Issues pertain to:
-Philippines maintaining its territorial claims based on historical usage and international law, as upheld by the 2016 Hague Arbitration ruling which China rejected.
-Proximity to Taiwan Straits results in increased military activity around the Philippines, including frequent Chinese naval manoeuvres.
-Strategic partnerships with the United States place the Philippines at the crossroads of superpower competition.
-Military cooperation measures include joint exercises and defence aid, bolstering Philippine capabilities in response to regional threats.
These factors require a delicate balancing act by Philippines. Its strategic calculus must weigh national sovereignty against economic interests and diplomatic relations. The nation’s approach to national security continues to evolve, as it seeks to uphold its territorial integrity while engaging with both regional allies and larger powers vying for influence.
Balancing Between Major Powers
The foreign policy of the Philippines is like walking on a tightrope, skilfully managing the complicated world of geopolitics to maintain and strengthen alliances. Despite China’s growing power, the relationship between the Philippines and the United States remains strong. Simultaneously, the Philippines is working on building closer connections with China. This delicate approach shows how flexible and adaptable a country can be when it comes to international relationships.
The advantages of this strategy are as follows:
1. Enhanced Diplomatic Leverage: By dealing with both China and the United States, the Philippines places itself in a position where it can influence decisions that affect the region and its own interests.
2. Economic Benefits: Having good relations with these major powers can bring economic advantages, such as investments, trade opportunities, and financial assistance for development.
3. Strategic Security: The alliance with the United States gives the Philippines a sense of security, while its ties with China can help prevent potential conflicts, especially in disputed areas of the sea.
Of course, there are also difficulties in balancing relationships with two powerful countries.
1. Strategic Ambiguity: It easy to keep things equal when dealing with two nations. The Philippines needs to be careful not to get too involved or to appear biased towards one side.
2. Internal Political Dynamics: People within a country have different opinions on whether it is better to align with China or the United States. This can lead to the division of public views and inconsistent policies.
3. Regional Tensions: Other countries in Southeast Asia may have their own ideas regarding China’s growing influence. This could create disagreements within the ASEAN nations and make it harder for the Philippines to lead and unite them.
By adhering to this strategy, the Philippines hopes to get the most out of its relationships with both China and the United States, while still protecting its own interests and influence in the region. Over time, this complex foreign policy will shape how the country deals with future changes in world politics while staying true to its role in ASEAN and beyond.
Building a Stronger Defence: Self-Reliance and Regional Cooperation
The Philippines has made noteworthy progress in improving its defence capabilities in response to the changing security situation in the Indo-Pacific region. This includes acquiring new equipment, strengthening the military, and preparing its forces for current challenges. Defence modernisation efforts cover various aspects, including the purchase of advanced jets, supersonic missiles, naval vessels, and surveillance systems that enhance the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP).
The Philippines has one formal defence pact:
Mutual defence Treaty (MDT) with the United States (1951): This cornerstone treaty obliges both nations to come to each other’s aid in case of armed attack.
However, the Philippines also engages in other security collaborations through agreements and membership.
Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN): Established in 1967, ASEAN promotes regional peace and stability. The Philippines has participated in joint military exercises and dialogue to foster regional security cooperation.
Five Power Defence Arrangements (FPDA): This informal arrangement involving Australia, New Zealand, Malaysia, Singapore, and the United Kingdom aims to maintain regional stability in Southeast Asia. While not a formal treaty, the Philippines collaborates with FPDA members on maritime security and defence issues.
Beyond these, the Philippines is developing closer defence ties with several nations through agreements and memoranda of understanding (MOUs):
France: A potential Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA) is under discussion, which would facilitate joint military exercises and training.
Japan: The 2023 Agreement on defence Equipment and Technology Transfer allows Japan to share technology and potentially co-develop equipment, enhancing the Philippines’ military capabilities. Discussions on reciprocal access agreements (RAA) are also ongoing.
Indonesia: The Renewed defence and Security Cooperation Agreement (DSCA) of 2023 serves as the foundation for collaboration on information exchange, joint patrols, and maritime security.
Malysia: There was an MOU in 1994 for defence cooperation on maritime security, intelligence sharing, and capacity building.
Brunei: There is an MOU in 2001 for defence cooperation on maritime security, training, defence technology, military exchanges, and capacity building.
India: An MOU on defence cooperation (2006) with a joint defence cooperation committee (JDCC) provides a framework for collaboration. The recent BrahMos missile deal and discussions on defence industry cooperation display a growing strategic partnership.
Canada: Talks of a potential MOU on defence cooperation are underway, which could lead to increased collaboration in areas such as joint exercises and information sharing.
The European Union’s Pivot to the Indo-Pacific
The European Union (EU) has recently shifted its attention towards the Indo-Pacific, outlining a strategic vision that aims to strengthen cooperation with regional players. This move was motivated by the EU’s commitment to support a rule-based international system and address China’s assertive behaviour.
The key Elements of the EU strategy include the following:
1. Establishing an Inclusive Framework for Dialogue and Cooperation
The EU’s primary objective is to create a platform on which all relevant stakeholders can engage in open discussions and work together on shared challenges. This framework is based on two fundamental principles.
-Respect for International Law.
-Ensuring Freedom of Navigation.
2. Focusing on Priority Areas for Collaboration
Maximise the impact of its engagement in the Indo-Pacific, the EU has identified several key areas that can contribute effectively because of shared interests with regional partners:
-Climate Change:
-Promoting digitalisation
-Advancing Connectivity.
Potential Areas of Alignment with the Philippines
This evolving EU strategy presents potential areas of convergence with nations, such as the Philippines. Shared interests include the following.
-Sustainable Development
-Maritime Security: As archipelagic states, the EU and Philippines share concerns about maritime security threats such as piracy, illegal fishing, and maritime terrorism. Cooperation in areas such as information sharing, and capacity building can help to address these challenges.
-Upholding International Norms
Understanding the Impact of EU-China Relations
The evolving dynamics of EU-China relations also have implications for the Philippines’ geopolitical stance. While economic interdependence continues to shape EU-China ties, differences in values and concerns over China’s actions in the South China Sea have created tension. Key Points to note are:
–The EU’s Response to China’s Assertiveness: In response to Beijing’s increasingly assertive behaviour, the EU has demonstrated a willingness to push back through measures such as sanctions imposed over human rights abuses. This signifies a shift towards a more robust approach to dealing with China.
-Balancing Economic Interests and Security Concerns: For countries like the Philippines that have close economic ties with both the EU and China, managing this delicate balance between economic interests and security considerations is crucial. The divergence between the EU and China regarding certain issues may influence how countries navigate their relationships with these major powers.
The Complex Web of Relationships in the Indo-Pacific
The interaction among these external actors – USA, the EU, China, and the Philippines – adds another layer of complexity to the already intricate geopolitical landscape of the Indo-Pacific region. As countries pursue their respective interests and navigate competing dynamics, the need for constructive dialogue and cooperation has become increasingly important for ensuring peace, stability, and sustainable development in the region.
Examining China-Philippines Relations
Centuries of trade and cultural exchange have intertwined China and the Philippines. However, the 20th century brought about new complexities. With its rich fishing grounds and potential natural resources, the South China Sea has emerged as a major point of contention.
Despite territorial disputes, China is the largest trading partner of the Philippines. Significant trade flows and Chinese investments are crucial to the Philippine economy. This economic interdependence creates a complex situation in which the Philippines seeks to balance its security concerns with economic ties to China.
The relationship between the two nations has fluctuated in recent years. The presidency of Rodrigo Duterte (2016-2022) prioritized economic ties with China, downplaying the South China Sea dispute. However, the current president, Ferdinand Marcos Jr., has shown willingness to reassert Philippine claims while maintaining open communication channels with China.
Challenges and Considerations
Reconciling the South China Sea dispute remains a major challenge. Both sides need to find ways to manage tensions peacefully and explore avenues for cooperation, such as joint exploration and resource development.
The Philippines faces the challenge of balancing its economic ties with China and its security alliance with the US. Maintaining strategic autonomy that upholds national interests is crucial.
– Public opinion in the Philippines holds a negative view of China due to South China Sea issues. Addressing these concerns and fostering trust-building measures is important.
Role of U.S. in The Conflict
While not directly involved in territorial disputes, the U.S. has been a prominent figure in this conflict due to its strategic interest in ensuring freedom of navigation through these crucial waters.
To challenge China’s territorial claims, the U.S. conducts Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOPs). These operations involved deploying warships within twelve nautical miles of contested territories claimed by China to demonstrate its non-recognition of Chinese sovereignty over those areas.
Additionally, the U.S. provides military aid to countries such as the Philippines and Vietnam as a counter to Chinese aggression. The Philippine Mutual Defence Treaty could potentially be invoked in response to an armed attack on Philippine forces, public vessels, or aircraft in the South China Sea.
By standing up against China’s unilateral alterations of the status quo in these contested waters, the U.S. aims to deter any further escalation of conflict and uphold international maritime laws.
Role of ASEAN
ASEAN holds significant weight in regional security because of the following reasons:
-Collective Diplomacy: ASEAN members collectively negotiate with larger powers such as China on issues such as maritime security and trade.
-Conflict Mediation: The organisation works towards peaceful resolutions to disputes among its members and with external parties.
-Economic Integration: ASEAN promotes economic growth and stability through regional cooperation which can counterbalance external pressures.
China’s interactions with ASEAN are complex. While it seeks economic cooperation through forums such as BRI projects within ASEAN countries, their conflicting interests in territorial disputes such as those in the South China Sea pose challenges to this relationship. Nonetheless, ASEAN remains pivotal to maintaining a balance in regional power dynamics.
The intricate interplay between these key players underscores the multifaceted nature of the China-Philippines maritime conflict. With each actor bringing distinct motivations and resources to bear on this issue, understanding their roles provides insight into the potential outcomes of regional security in the Indo-Pacific region.
Sino-Indian Border Issue
The Sino-Indian border issue throws another variable into a mix of regional tension. These border disputes resonate throughout the wider Indo-Pacific region, potentially altering alliances and security calculations.
-Impact on Regional Alliances: With India being an integral part of the Quad, border disputes can affect cooperative efforts aimed at countering China’s assertiveness.
-Shift in Military Focus: Heightened tensions along the Sino-Indian border could divert Chinese military resources and attention away from maritime domains, temporarily easing the pressure on Southeast Asian claimants.
Recent naval exercises in the South China and Yellow Sea also deserve a mention- on 14 September 2023, the USS America, an amphibious assault ship, also called a lightning carrier, took part in a large-scale naval exercise in Yellow Sea along with South Korea and Canada. The Yellow Sea is of vital importance to Beijing’s strategic concerns as it is in proximity to Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei hinterland, and it is also the strategic front of the Shandong and Liaodong peninsula. In October 1994, the USS Kitty Hawk was confronted by a Chinese Nuclear submarine in the same area and had led to a crisis.
It is undrestood that this time, a Chinese Navy’s Type 055 destroyer, Wuxi, returned via the Tsushima Strait to the East China Sea, which prompted the USS America to exit the yellow sea, after just 5 hours of the exercise. In addition, China also announced its intention to carry out exercises in the Bohai and Yellow Sea. China thereafter carried out a large-scale exercise with Carrier Shandong and 20 other ships, well beyond the first island chain in the Philippines sea, between Taiwan and Guam. These exercises imply that China is also preparing to operate far away from its shores and close to its perceived adversary.
USA, Japan, Australia, and The Philippines have again carried out joint naval exercises in the South China Sea on the 7th of April 2024, in response, China also carried out Combat Patrols in the area.
Conclusion
The China-Philippines maritime conflict has brought the precarious balance of power in the South China Sea to the forefront. As tensions escalate, the potential for regional security crisis poses serious challenges to East Asia’s stability.
This brief analysis suggests that the regional stability of the South China Sea and East China Sea is at risk, with the conflict escalating beyond regional borders and involving international powers, such as the United States. The repercussions of this dispute may resonate beyond territorial claims and fishing rights, potentially disrupting trade routes and increasing military tension.
Stakeholders need to understand that diplomatic resolution is crucial for preventing further escalation. Ignoring or bypassing international maritime laws and arbitration rulings exacerbates mutual distrust and hostility.
Unbiased Jottings on Global Maritime Issues 