9. India China Naval Balance

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(Published article in Defence and Security Alert Sep 2012)

“Only when China and India develop well, can one claim that the century of Asia has come. If China and India strengthen cooperation, Asian unity, stability and prosperity will be very hopeful; the world will be in peace and make more progress

Deng Xiaoping

 Initiatives by China in the Indian Ocean region in the past decade would point to a rather imbalanced tilt in favour of China because of its forays into port projects in Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and Myanmar. Chinese anxiety is rooted in its insecurities arising from SLOCs, which are currently dominated by the US, and its endeavour to protect its economy from over dependence on Malacca in future. It is also a fact that PLAN in the current state, is unable to project itself as a formidable navy, far into the Indian Ocean and counter blockage of SLOCs should such a situation arise. Further China has increased its influence in African countries by carrying out developmental and infrastructure projects, thereby gaining a toe hold in their resources as well as their support in international bodies. India on the other hand has tried to strengthen its relationships with Indonesia, Singapore, Vietnam, Japan and Australia, to extend its reach in Southern Indian Ocean and South China Sea. It is also evident that India’s role in the IOR has tacit approval of the United States of America, much to the discomfort of China. It is noteworthy, as far as SLOCs are concerened that, while China has some costlier options with respect to bypassing Malacca, India has no viable alternatives to its SLOCs as they begin and end in the IOR.

The China-India economic excursions/largesse  have been beneficial to the recipient nations, who in turn have in their own way tried to balance a perceived hegemony by either of the Asian giants.

The projection of power in the IOR is thus becoming an economic chessboard between China and India, with none in a position yet to breach the status quo. Meanwhile the bilateral trade between the two is likely to touch $100 billion by 2015, creating its own shield against direct confrontation.

With the above background it can be seen that the driving force behind increasing influence in the IOR by both China and India are the insecurities regarding ‘energetics’, which is literally fuelling the rising economies.

Interestingly Mahan, in his book ‘The Influence of Sea power Upon History 1660-1783 ’ has interconnected manufactured items/export of raw materials to commerce (transaction of goods) and overseas bases as  providing security to trade as well mediums in transacting it. The activities carried out by a nation within its boundaries has been outreached across the oceans, making safe transportation of goods across the  seas, a vital link in the economic development and well being of a nation with sea borders. Thus free flow of trade becomes a national interest which needs to be safeguarded by a naval force, making it subservient to trade and commerce. Sea trade flourishes not because of a strong navy but importance of sea trade to a nation’s overall economic wellbeing gives rise to a strong navy. To quote Mahan-

“….. production, with the necessity of exchanging products; shipping, whereby the exchange is carried on; and colonies, which facilitate and enlarge the operations of shipping and tend to protect it by multiplying the points of safety—is to be found the key to much of the history, as well as of the policy, of nations bordering upon the sea.”

Alfred Thayer Mahan,

The Influence of Sea power Upon History 1660-1783

In the case of China and India, currently, it is securing the import of oil and gas from Gulf as well as the African coast, rather than the export of goods and raw material which is guiding the build up of diplomatic effort as also the naval strengths of the Asian giants.

With the backdrop of SLOC’s and economically driven power projection in the IOR it has become imperative for the Chinese to shift the focus from maintaining a coastal defence navy to developing a progressive blue water force. China has not explicitly articulated its aspirations for a blue water navy but strengthening of its submarine fleet and credible plans of operating a carrier battle group in near future give indications of PLAN’s transcendence from an offshore to an oceanic navy. China clearly understands that for it to field a substantial blue water force, its navy should have the ability to exercise control over seas near its shoreline, protect its island territories, and deny access on sea routes of its interest to navies of its adversaries. The current abilities of PLAN already enable it to carry out asymmetric warfare and pose an effective nuclear deterrent. The strength of PLAN is approximately twice the size of Indian Navy in terms of major warships.

The Indian Navy has graduated to one of the finest navies in the region both quantitatively and qualitatively and has the experience of operating aircraft carriers for over four decades. However even though it has a wide reach, it still does not have the numbers required for sea control along its coast line or sea denial in areas of its choosing. Indian Navy’s acquisition plans are aimed at long range operations and extra regional power projection, accordingly its modernisation and replacement plans are ambitious but hampered by time and cost over runs.

In case of a face off in South China sea, the Indian Navy may not match up to the PLAN, the same will hold true for PLAN if the faceoff takes place in IOR. A China India Naval Balance does exist as of today in the region, with the underlying fact that none of the two countries are even thinking about confrontation at sea in the near future. A comparison of naval force attribute in purely layman’s terms is placed below:-

ATTRIBUTE

CHINA

INDIA
A/C carrier

~End 2012

Yes
SSBNs

Yes

Not yet
SSNs

Yes

Yes
ASBMs

Yes

No
Amphibious capability

Yes

Yes
Naval aviation

Yes

Yes
Major Combatants

Yes

Yes
Extended Reach

Not  Yet

Yes
Aggressiveness

Benign as of now

Benign
Capability build up

Rapid

Slow
Intl Joint Operations

Limited experience

Adequate experience

*Layman’s Comparison of Naval force attributes

Two important factors that are likely to change the India China naval balance in next decades in favour of China are the economic crucible and the emergence of the land based anti ship ballistic missile (ASBM) the Dongfeng 21D.

Economics

The following graph from SIPRI gives country wise, the increase in military spending during 2000-2011. It can be observed that whereas China’s military expenditure increased a whopping 286%, Indian military spending increased by only 71%.

As far as the economics goes it is seen that PLAN receives ~24% of the Chinese defence budget of $106 Billion, where as Indian Navy gets ~ 14% of the Indian defence budget of ~$36 Billion. The Chinese defence budget is estimated to go up to ~$238 billion by 2015, more than double in next three years, with corresponding increase in the PLAN’s share. No country in the IOR can even come anywhere near those figures in the next three to four decades. The rapid expansion of PLAN into a formidable blue water force outgunning the Indian Navy, is a given by 2025.

An interesting study carried out by Nathaniel Barber etal[1] has predicted that:-

a) For an ‘expansionist China’:-

– China would be unlikely to attack India before being quite prepared; at such a time when China was prepared, its foothold in the Indian Ocean region would be so strong that armed conflict would be unnecessary.

– In the next 10 years or so, if India wishes to maintain its influence with its closest neighbours, it would have to compete with China’s direct investment in its neighbours’ infrastructure.

– In 10 years and beyond, India would likely see China exploit the countries’ widening trade gap. India would lose investment opportunities and face being cut off from key port facilities in the Indian Ocean region where it can no longer afford investment competition with China.

b) For a ‘non expansionist China’:-

-China’s actions relating to India would not be directed at India; rather they simply would be strategic steps taken in a region that is important to Chinese shipping. Also, the presence of the Chinese military would not be explicitly aggressive or expansionist per se: it would be in line with the norms of all superpowers to retain bases throughout the globe to be utilised for a variety of reasons.

ASBM DongFeng 21 D

The emergence of ASBM DongFeng 21 D is being hailed as a game changer in naval warfare, though it has not yet been proven in combat ,it has still caused serious anxiety as far as CBG operations are concerned. It is inevitable that China will position these missiles with its associated C4ISR systems within the next couple of years. As far as Indian Navy is concerned, it will have to develop a doctrine to operate its carriers under the omnipresent threat of Dongfeng 21 D’s as they have a strike range of over 3000 Kms, and would therefore deter any opportunistic adventures which may irritate the Chinese. It is unlikely that an indigenous counter to the Chinese ASBM will be available for deployment by even 2020. Admiral Nirmal Verma stated that:-

“As far as a weapon like ASBM is concerned, if it is operationally fielded, certainly it is a matter of concern,” …. “The areas in which it (ASBM) will be deployed in our area of operation is something we need to look at. And certainly we need to have something in place with respect to ASBM-type of weapon and we will put it in place.”

Admiral Nirmal Verma, 02 Dec 2010.

It is understood that while the US is working out a startegy to effectively counter the ASBM threat it is also trying to reduce conflict with China by enhancing startegic dialogue and taking steps to avoid miscommunication. Admiral Willard has stated that “…I think this raises the importance of a continuous military-to-military dialogue….”

Range Rings for Chinese ASBM and other Conventional Anti-Access Capabilities

The Future of India- China Naval Balance

Two major issues discussed above clearly indicate towards a powerful and transformed PLAN in the next two decades, which would be notches above the Indian capability, this dampner by no means implies a subservient role for the Indian Navy, it only underpins the relevance of continued dialogue and cooperative strategy in the IOR and South China Seas between the United States and the other aspiring regional naval powers to maintain a status quo which would be extremely beneficial to the nations in the region.

This brings us to the issue of India China Naval balance in the next two decades, Walter C. Ladwig III[2] has rightly argued that given the current preponderance of American power in the region, and the gap between the relative power of Japan, China, and India, it is unlikely that Asia will see the emergence of multiple poles of approximately equal power in the medium term. As a result, the most likely configuration in Asia appears to be a continuation of the present, which is a hierarchical order with American preponderance especially with the Pivot to Asia, where in by 2020 sixty percent of the American fleet would be positioned in the Asia pacific region.

The Indian Navy will have a very significant role to play, even when it may not be able to match the PLAN in years to come, it has to transform itself in to a major regional navy and possibly align with the US and its allies in East and South East Asia, such that the cooperative strength of the arrangements far outweighs the Chinese naval power in the region. This would then prevent shifting of power from the US to China, which otherwise could lead to destabilising the region.

In the words of Lora Saalman[3] “India should continue a strategy of cooperative engagement with China and enhance bilateral trade on one hand and on the other hand try to locate synergies and confront differences for making long-term sustainable progress in a pre-crisis rather than post-crisis setting.”

[1] Nathaniel Barber, Kieran Coe, Victoria Steffes, Jennifer Winter, China in the Indian Ocean: Impacts, Prospects, Opportunities.

Prepared for U.S. government’s Office of South Asia Policy, Workshop in International Public Affairs, Spring 2011 University of Wisconsin–Madison

 

[2] Walter C. Ladwig III, Delhi’s Pacific Ambition: Naval Power, “Look East,” and India’s Emerging Influence in the Asia-Pacific, in Asian Security, Vol.5, No. 2 (June 2009)

[3] Lora Saalman, Divergence, Similarity and Symmetry in Sino-Indian Threat Perceptions. Journal of International Affairs, Spring/Summer 2011, Vol. 64, No. 2.

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